The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors, Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change, https://github.com/davidnbresch/climada/blob/master/docs/climada_manual.pdf, https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html, https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s352601.html, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Metadata/Glossary#, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/assets/pdf/methodology.pdf, http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. 4. Appendix A.6 first shows the results of the randomization tests, followed by coefficient plots that summarize the remaining specifications. To be in line with the related growth literature, I estimate a further specification where I add a set of socioeconomic control variables (Islam 1995; Strobl 2012; Felbermayr and Grschl 2014). Other studies analyze the disasters impact on single sectors, such as the agricultural (Blanc and Strobl 2016; Mohan 2017) or the manufacturing sector (Bulte etal. 2015). Cyclones also can bring torrential rains that lead to flooding. The impact of cyclones can be extremely devastating, both in terms of loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Google Scholar, Albala-Bertrand J-M (1993) Natural disaster situations and growth: a macro-economic model for sudden disaster impacts. The other proportional shares on total GDP are: Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, hotels (15%); agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing (14%); mining and utilities (10%); transport, storage, communication (8%). Their destructiveness has three sources: damaging winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfalls. In subsequent years, tropical cyclones negatively affect the majority of all sectors. Google Scholar, Kousky C (2014) Informing climate adaptation: a review of the economic costs of natural disasters. (2019) show that indirect impacts are nearly as high as direct impacts. B.E. The robustness tests that frequently fail are those with Conley-HAC and NeweyWest standard errors. First, I only use the damage fraction due to maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones. Eur Econ Rev 101:441458, Chhibber A, Laajaj R (2008) Disasters, climate change and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa: lessons and directions. volume78,pages 545569 (2021)Cite this article. Other basins have different names for the same phenomenon: tropical cyclone. 2017). Q J Econ 110(4):11271170, Klein Goldewijk K, Beusen A, Doelman J, Stehfest E (2017) Anthropogenic land use estimates for the holoceneHYDE 3.2. In general, a one standard deviation increase in tropical cyclone damage is associated with a decrease in the annual growth rate in the sector aggregate agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing of \(-\,2.62\) percentage points. The individual point estimates are shown in Figs. Therefore, they take 5-year averages of the number of affected people normalized by the total population as main explanatory variable. \end{array}\right. } One major effort of this paper is to generate a new meaningful sectoral damage variable on a country-year level. 2 contains a description of the data source, introduces the construction of the tropical cyclone damage measure, and presents descriptive statistics. After controlling for country and time specific effects, my estimation approaches allow for a causal identification of the direct and indirect responses to tropical cyclones damages with only little assumption needed (Dell etal. 4 and 6 with the population weighted damage for the agricultural sectoral aggregate. World Dev 40(7):13171336, Mendelsohn R, Emanuel K, Chonabayashi S, Bakkensen L (2012) The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. To implement the Fisher randomization test, I use the code generated by He (2017) and randomly permute the years of the tropical cyclone damage variable for 2000 repetitions. 2019). Table 1 presents the results of the main specification for each of the seven annual sectoral GDP per capita growth rates. J Econ Lit 52(3):740798, Dupor B (1999) Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models. It rather points to the presence of (delayed) negative effects of tropical cyclones from which the sectors cannot recover. The coefficients range between zero and one. Therefore, in this section, I investigate, by means of the InputOutput analysis, how the sectors change their interaction after a tropical cyclone has hit a country. Hurricane Florence reached its maximum wind speed of 130 knots (category 4 hurricane) on 11 September and made landfall on 14 September in North Carolina. Exposed countries are defined as having at least one positive damage observation over the sample period. In contrast, for the agricultural sector, it would be misleading to take a nighttime light or a population weight, since these areas have a rather low population density. 2012). Future weather. After one year, we can also detect a positive effect in the construction sector, which is not surprising given the higher number of orders due to reconstruction efforts. All weights are available in the HYDE 3.2 data set (Klein Goldewijk etal. Notes The colored areas depict all significant coefficients between the sectors, with negative coefficients in red and positive in green. Mohan (2017) provides further evidence that in Caribbean countries agricultural crops are more severely affected by hurricanes compared to livestock. Tropical Cyclones | World Meteorological Organization For large weather systems, the circulation pattern is in a counterclockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and a clockwise direction in the Southern Hemisphere. Clim Change 114(3):745768, Ghosh A (1958) Input-output approach in an allocation system. Technical report, Universit catholique de Louvain (UCL). Glob Environ Change 26:183195, Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS). http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2512, Yang D (2008) Coping with disaster: the impact of hurricanes on international financial flows, 19702002. This does not mean that there have to exist a permanent negative growth effect for every period after the disaster. The error term \(\epsilon _{i,t}\) is clustered at the country level. Additionally, the lagged dependent variable controls for a sluggish adjustment to shocks of the individual sector input composition. They are responsible for a demand shock in the mining and quarrying sectoral aggregate, leading to delayed negative growth effects being persistent over 10years. Freddy: The deadly cyclone that lasted more than a month Since climatological impacts are most likely nonlinear, I also include squared precipitation and temperature in a further robustness test. The red and green arrow colors represent significant negative and positive effects, whereas the color intensities denote different p-values. 912, while Tables 511 show the regression results. For example, Hsiang (2010) finds an immediate positive response of the construction sector. Immediately after the disaster, the policy should concentrate on the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing, and the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sector aggregates, as they are most vulnerable, and/or recovery measures have not been conducted efficiently in these sectors. Tropical storm case study - Hurricane Ida - Tropical cyclones - Edexcel The damage estimates can be found in Table1. Correspondence to In total, I use two different aggregation methods. I also tested for lagged cumulative effects. Surprisingly, the sector aggregate mining and utilities turns negative three years after the tropical cyclone has hit the country.